Short-term forecasting of salinity intrusion in Ham Luong river, Ben Tre province using Simple Exponential Smoothing method
Dự báo ngắn hạn xâm nhập mặn trên sông Hàm Luông, tỉnh Bến Tre bằng phương pháp Simple Exponential Smoothing
Salinity intrusion in a river may have an adverse effect on the quality of life and can be perceived as a modern-day curse. Therefore, it is important to find technical ways to monitor and forecast salinity intrusion. In this paper, we designed a forecasting model using Simple Exponential Smoothing method (SES) which performs weekly salinity intrusion forecast in Ham Luong river (HLR), Ben Tre province based on historical data obtained from the Center for Hydro-meteorological forecasting of Ben Tre province. The results showed that the SES method provides an adequate predictive model for forecast of salinity intrusion in An Thuan, Son Doc, and Phu Khanh. However, the SES in My Hoa, An Hiep, and Vam Mon could be improved upon by another forecasting technique. This study suggests that the SES model is an easy-to-use modeling tool for water resource managers to obtain a quick preliminary assessment of salinity intrusion.
Xâm nhập mặn có thể gây tác động xấu đến đời sống con người, tuy nhiên nó hoàn toàn có thể dự báo được. Cho nên, một điều quan trọng là tìm được phương pháp kỹ thuật phù hợp để dự báo và giám sát xâm nhập mặn trên sông. Trong bài báo này, chúng tôi sử dụng phương pháp Simple Exponential Smoothing để dự báo xâm nhập mặn trên sông Hàm Luông, tỉnh Bến Tre. Kết quả cho thấy mô hình dự báo phù hợp cho các vị trí An Thuận, Sơn Đốc, và Phú Khánh. Tuy nhiên, các vị trí Mỹ Hóa, An Hiệp, và Vàm Mơn có thể tìm các phương pháp khác phù hợp hơn. Phương pháp Simple Exponential Smoothing rất dễ ứng dụng trong quản lý nguồn nước dựa vào việc cảnh báo xâm nhập mặn.
Copyright (c) 2019 Tran Thanh Thai
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